How is India faring in terms of growth as compared to other emerging market economies?
The growth recovery in India has been quite spectacular over the last 12 months. Most other emerging economies, especially in Asia, are benefitting from the strong pick-up in export demand, both regionally and from China and developed economies as well. The growth pick-up was more domestically driven. After the recession was over the combined effect of loose monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and one of grants that came in the system in the form of sixth pay commission, the NREGA schemes being implemented in a much better fashion. I think with that combination we saw a big jump in domestic demand, particularly within the investment and capex spending sector. So while from that perspective India's growth recovery has been a 'V' shaped, the drivers of growth has been different as compared to some of its regional peers. Detroit-Pistons
What does this translate into in terms of foreign inflows?
Most foreign investors still remain structurally bullish on India. Barring a few concerns such as infrastructure and capacity constraints, people do, generally, acknowledge that India is going to grow at a rapid pace over the next 5-10 years. This is pretty valid in the amount of foreign inflows we have seen in the equity markets. In the context of the Asian region year to date, we have seen more than 50% of the foreign inflows in India, excluding Japan. So that is a clear indication that people, despite the relatively high valuations, remain fairly bullish on the Indian growth story.
Inflation is a big concern in India. Is it a concern even in other emerging economies?
Back in Q4 of FY10, when food inflation was picking up on the back of the drought, there was a case for early action to essentially clamp down on inflation expectations. christian louboutin Now, along with the growth recovery what we have seen is that demand side price pressures have picked up significantly. So as the output gap closes fast in India, we have domestic demand rising significantly and on the back of it raw material prices have been going up and underlying demand side pressures have been exaggerated. For the current month we expect inflation to be between 8-10%. Most people acknowledge that interest rates on medium term basis are going to rise. But I think the pace needs to be questioned rather than the direction and that is where the nuances within policy making are likely to pick up more now than it was one month earlier.
Compared to some of the other regional economies apart from the supply side pressures there are signs of demand side inflationary pressures in economies such as Korea. In China earlier in the year there were some concerns on inflation, but with the recent data showing that these concerns are coming down gradually. We have seen pressures on the inflation side and policy makers are concerned. Looking at countries such as Australia, India, China and Korea, these are the countries which saw some sort of demand side pressures and policy makers have accordingly reacted earlier.
What is the kind of rate hike you are expecting for the rest of the current financial year?
We are not expecting aggressive rate hikes from here. We expect one rate hike in the mid-quarter policy review of the policy in September. Beyond that there is an outside change that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will increase only the reverse repo and narrows the corridor even further in the November quarterly review. RBI is unlikely to be hawkish from here on. We are expecting 25 basis point
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